Definition: Grey Zone Warfare has emerged as a battlefield-centric concept and is defined as the use of coercive measures to exploit the operational space between peace and war, that deliberately stay below a threshold so as not to prompt a conventional military response to alter the status quo, which otherwise would have been triggered.
In grey zone warfare, the results are available after a long interval of time. The origin of this lies in a historical dispute that the aggressor nation defends with its modern revisionist claims.
Methods
Grey Zone Warfare features below the threshold activities, including kinetic and non-kinetic methods by traditional military forces and irregular proxies.
Kinetic: It is the utilisation of proxies for actions in the adversary country, or alteration of the territorial status quo through force or militarisation of disputed features. Example: China’s action in the South China Sea or Russia’s invasion of Crimea
Non-kinetic: These are advanced methods which include cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, election interference, weaponisation of migrants, and unjustified use of trade and economic levers
Characteristics of grey zone warfare
(i) Below the threshold of armed conflict: The actions in this remain below the threshold of fueling a full-scale military attack as a justified response, by the dint of non-military tools.
Example: Russia’s attack on Crimea and China’s action in the South China Sea are examples of grey zone warfare
(ii) Progressive unfolding of aggressive moves: The strategy adopted here is aggressive-passive resistance being prolonged to keep the dispute active on the one hand while also providing a false narrative of engaging in talks to thwart the dispute.
Example: China’s use of the Salami Slicing tactics to change the territorial status quo with its neighbours
(iii) Risk of escalation: Its aggression utilises the risk of escalation as a source of coercive measure and deters a decisive response. Example: Chinese and Pakistani Incursion in the northern Himalayan borders of India.
(iv) Lack of attributability: The involved country can easily deny its engagement and deflect response in most of the grey zone campaigns, which blocks the potential for successful deterrence, as it can simply shake off its responsibility.
Example: Cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns, or the utilization of proxy forces, election meddling ( Russia in the USA elections)
(v) Targeting specific vulnerabilities: Its campaigns target particular vulnerabilities in specific countries with targeted campaigns aimed at creating restiveness.
Example: Funding terrorism and insurgency in other countries by arming splinter groups.
(vi) Strategic ambiguity: Robust retaliation acts as counterproductive as the aggressive country avails the strategic ambiguity in relations, wherein there a competing strategic, economic, and domestic political reasons to not get into a full-scale war.
Example: Banning Chinese applications after the Doklam issue was a weaker response from the Indian side.
Advantages of grey zone warfare
(i) Avoids Escalation to Full-Scale Conflict: Given India’s nuclear-armed neighbors (Pakistan and China), grey zone tactics (e.g., cyber operations, proxy support) allow India to counter threats without triggering conventional or nuclear war.
(ii) Cost-Effectiveness: Covert actions, economic pressure (e.g., trade restrictions with Pakistan post-Uri/Pulwama), and diplomatic campaigns are cheaper than large military deployments.
(iii) Strategic Flexibility: Enables India to respond asymmetrically to hybrid threats, such as countering Chinese influence in South Asia through initiatives like the “Neighborhood First” policy or the Indo-Pacific Quad.
(iv) Information Dominance: Leveraging soft power (e.g., Bollywood, yoga) and countering adversarial propaganda (e.g., Pakistan’s narratives on Kashmir) through strategic communication.
Issues associated with it
(i) Ambiguity and Miscalculation Risks: Covert actions (e.g., alleged Balakot strikes) could provoke unintended escalation. For instance, the 2019 India-Pakistan standoff.
(ii) Domestic Governance Challenges: Democratic oversight and bureaucratic delays may hinder swift responses to grey zone threats. (e.g., slow policy coordination on cyber defense).
(iii) Attribution Difficulties: Cyberattacks (e.g., Chinese state-linked hacks on Indian infrastructure) are hard to attribute, complicating diplomatic or legal responses.
(iv) Prolonged Instability: Proxy conflicts (e.g., Kashmir insurgency) drain resources and perpetuate regional instability without clear resolution.
(v) Reputational Risks: Exposure of covert operations (e.g., alleged RAW activities) could damage India’s international credibility.
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Way forward
(i) Integrated National Strategy:
(a) Establish a multi-domain task force combining military, cyber, diplomatic, and economic tools.
(b) Strengthen the National Cyber Security Coordinator’s role and invest in AI/quantum technologies for cyber defense.
(ii) International Collaboration:
(a) Deepen Quad cooperation to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.
(b) Partner with ASEAN and EU nations to set norms against economic coercion (e.g., BRI debt traps).
(iii) Domestic Resilience Building:
(a) Enhance media literacy and counter disinformation through public awareness campaigns.
(b) Fast-track defense modernization (e.g., S-400 systems) and invest in dual-use tech (space, drones).
(iv) Legal and Institutional Reforms:
(a) Develop clear legal frameworks for cyber operations and proxy engagements to ensure compliance with international law.
(b) Improve inter-agency coordination (e.g., between RAW, NTRO, and state police) for hybrid threat response.
(v) Economic and Diplomatic Measures:
(a) Counter BRI with alternatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).
(b) Use economic aid to stabilize neighbors (e.g., Sri Lanka, Nepal) and reduce adversarial influence.
Conclusion
India’s democratic ethos and regional security challenges necessitate a balanced approach to grey zone warfare. By integrating strategic deterrence, international partnerships, and domestic resilience, India can mitigate risks. At the same time, leveraging grey zone tactics to safeguard its interests in an era of hybrid threats.