Why in the news?
The Israel-Iran Conflict, which has been running since 2024, has increased by a few months. Israel, under “Operation Rising Lion”, launched airstrikes and drone attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military sites. The sole motive was to prevent Iran from advancing towards building an atomic weapon. In exchange for it, Iran too launched ballistic missiles in massive numbers at Israel under “Operation True Promise 3”. It also caused explosions over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Reasons for the Israel-Iran Conflict
- Historical Roots: Deep antagonism has been there between the two since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. It turned Iran from a close friend of Israel to an Islamic Republic brazenly hostile towards the Jewish state.
- Religious and Ideological Divide: Iran, being a Shia Islamic state, and Israel, a Jewish state, have contrasting religious and ideological differences. These foundational disparities have ignited mutual distrust and bitterness over the years.
- Iran’s Support for Anti-Israel Groups: Iran has been a committed supporter of Palestinian causes. Also, it provides support to Hamas and Hezbollah, which Israel has labelled as terrorist organisations.
- Geopolitical Rivalry: Both struggle for regional dominance, with opposing interests. As we can see in conflicts such as the Syrian civil war and the Yemen crisis.
- Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Israel considers Iran’s nuclear programme a grave threat. As it will make Iran an unbridled horse.
Implications of the Israel-Iran Conflict on India
- Hampering India’s Energy Security: India imports around two million barrels of oil daily through the important Strait of Hormuz. So, any uncertainty would result in supply chain disruption, rocketing energy costs, increasing inflation, and an affected economy.
- Impact on Indian Diaspora: More than 65% of India’s NRIs live in the Middle East, especially in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc. So, the large chunk of diaspora in West Asia could face risks from regional turmoil.
- Disruption to Strategic Connectivity: India’s strategic connectivity projects, like the Chabahar port in Iran, could be impacted by regional conflict. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is also under threat from the tensions. As it can hamper its progress and affect bilateral relations, trade and the economic landscape.
- Diplomatic Tightrope for India: India has built strong relations with Israel, particularly in defence, technology, and innovation. But, as tensions rise, India could find itself in a tough position, facing pressure to take sides. Which any country wants to avoid due to its repercussions.
Possible Solutions
- Two-State Solution: Israel should go for a long-term ceasefire in Gaza, enable the flow of international humanitarian aid, and respect UN resolutions for resolving the age-old crisis through a 2 state solution.
- Dialogue and Diplomacy: Direct engagement between Iran and Israel, under the patronage of international mediators like the EU or the UN, could pave the way for trust-building and meaningful negotiations to identify common ground.
- Tackling Nuclear Proliferation: Iran could recommit to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), allowing international inspections to verify its compliance. In lieu of that, Israel could recognise Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and provide assurances against military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Strengthening Regional Cooperation: Fostering cooperation and coordination between Iran and Israel at regional forums. As it could help address mutual security issues and foster regional peace and tranquillity.
- Steps Towards Normalisation: Sending ambassadors to each other’s countries, reopening embassies, and encouraging people-to-people connections will for sure ensure fruitful results. As we have already seen, the model of peace initiatives between Israel and the UAE or Bahrain.
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Conclusion
The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, rooted in historical, ideological, and geopolitical tensions, puts regional stability and global security at risk. For India, it can risk its energy security, diaspora safety, and economic stability. So, Diplomatic channels, nuclear non-proliferation, and regional cooperation are very much in need to settle down the hostilities and ensure sustainable peace in West Asia.