Why in the news?
The Government of India has announced the next Census, which will be conducted in two phases in 2026 and 2027, with the reference date for the data being March 1, 2027.
Why was the Census (2021) Delayed?
(i) COVID-19 pandemic – The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted operations, leading to the postponement of the 2021 Census. As a consequence, India’s long-standing decadal chain.
(ii) Disruption to primary education – The Ministry of Home Affairs cited the need for approximately 30 lakh enumerators. Also, primary school teachers are required as enumerators.
(iii) Conducting the Census during or immediately after the pandemic could have severely disrupted primary education.
Significance of the Census
(i) Fundamental statistical basis – The nationwide Census gives the country a foundational and fundamental reality check. As it provides a holistic statistical image of its population and their socio-economic condition.
(ii) This important data gives us the idea, how the country has progressed or regressed over the past decade. Also, gives necessary insights for future policy-making and development plans.
(iii) Inflation control and Interest rates – The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India decides inflation rates and interest rates based on a consumption survey.
(iv) The Census provides the foundational “reality” and baseline data. So, these surveys are dependent on for precise weighting and representation of consumption and expenditure patterns.
(v) Migration and Urbanization – The 2011 Census revealed that most Indian migration is within the state, not inter-state. But with a large rural-to-rural flow.
(vi) However, this outmoded data hampers effective policymaking for urbanization and migration’s impact on resource allocation, employment, and social cohesion.
(vii) A new and updated Census is necessary for precise insights to ensure good governance and economic growth. As India’s reality has undoubtedly shifted.
Consequences of the Delay
(i) Data Quality Concerns – The politicisation of certain issues (like caste and language) could “malign the sanctity and credibility of the Census data” if individuals give coloured responses for political reasons.
(ii) Rising Costs of Accuracy – As the delay is getting longer and longer, obtaining a precise picture of reality becomes very costly for surveys and analyses attempting to mould India’s current state.
(iii) Lack of Alternatives – While data from various departments of government and administration is available for consideration. But it is often unreliable and incongruous.
(iv) Issues become debatable when varying definitions, collection methodology, and potential inclination from departments reporting their successes make it a bad substitute for a holistic and neutral Census.
(v) Outdated Policy Foundation – India has been operating largely on over a decade-old data due to this extended six-year gap, creating an outdated foundation for policymaking and economic analysis.
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What lies ahead?
(i) Political Battleground – The Census will ignite fierce debates over caste data and delimitation (rebalancing political representation). As a result, it will heavily affect federal dynamics and electoral strategies.
(ii) Economic Policy Reset – New data will compel important revisions in inflation calculation (CPI weights) and resource allocation for welfare schemes and infrastructure. All this collectively will impact the RBI’s monetary policy and government spending.
(iii) Foundation for Governance – It will showcase the current reality of migration patterns and urbanisation levels, necessary for effective and effective urban planning, service delivery, and comprehending social cohesion in a rapidly evolving India.
(iv) Data Integrity and Timeliness – Key issues will comprise the quality of data amidst politicization and enabling time-bound release to bridge the huge knowledge chasm created by the delay.
Conclusion
The Census is not only about a data collection exercise but also an important tool for governance, policy making, and planning. After a delay of around 10 years, Census 2027 will for sure provide a much-needed reset for India’s growing economy, governance, and democracy. Its perfect(time-bound and accurate) execution will be necessary to fulfil the aspirations of a rapidly evolving India.